Friday, October 9, 2009

Game Theory, Signaling and Comic Book Crime

reprinted from nytimes.com
by David G. Klein from the New York Times (2009)

Can Batman devise a scientific way to fight/reduce crime?

A recent article by Robert H. Frank in the New York Times described a more cost-effective method of reducing crime in the United States that borrows from game theoretic principles and the effect of signaling. The theory, proposed by Professor Mark Kleiman, basically says that rather than attempting to deter criminals by offering more severe punishments, law enforcement officials should instead attempt to increase the odds by which they are apprehended.

This is based on the premise (and apparently some empirical data) that most criminals are not rational actors in the sense that they would be deterred if the expected punishment was greater than the expected benefit of committing the crime. Instead they are "more like impulsive children, blinded by the temptation of immediate reward and largely untroubled by the possibility of delayed or uncertain punishment."

However, Kleiman argues that if a criminal were to think that the probability of being caught were high enough, then even more modest punishments would likely be enough to make him or her think twice about committing the crime in the first place.

If we were to accept this premise, what then would be an effective method of increasing the probability of criminals being apprehended? Kleiman argues that this could be done by using the effect of signaling--that is making the criminals think that by engaging in a crime, they would likely be caught. One method he suggests is publicizing a criminal priorities list. The game would work as follows:

Suppose that all drug violence in a city is committed by members of one of six hypothetical gangs — the Reds, Whites, Blues, Browns, Blacks and Greens — and that the authorities have enough staffing to arrest and prosecute offenders in only one gang at any one time. Mr. Kleiman proposes that the police publicly announce that their first priority henceforth will be offenders in one specific gang — say, the Reds (perhaps because its members committed the most serious crimes in the past).

This simple step quickly persuades members of that gang that further offenses will result in swift and sure punishment. And that is enough to deter them.

With the Reds out of action, the police can shift their focus to the Whites. They, too, quickly learn that violent offenses result in swift and certain punishment. So they quiet down as well, freeing the police to focus on the Blues, and so on.

But why don’t the Reds, seeing that the police have moved on, start committing violent offenses again? The reason is that they always remain atop the enforcement priority list. If they start offending again, police attention will again quickly focus entirely on them.


It is an interesting proposition to be sure, but would this method work against comic book supervillains? Suppose Batman and Commissioner Gordon read Professor Kleiman's new book and decided to employ these tactics on the Gotham villains. Let's say they take a group of notable supervillains--The Joker, Two-Face, The Penguin, Mr. Zsasz and The Riddler--and make a priorities list, which they intend to signal to them. By severity of past crimes, lets assume the ordering is (you can debate this if you want; I imagine people will argue the fact that I put the Riddler as more severe then Mr. Zsasz, but there should be no arguments that The Penguin is dead last).:

1) The Joker
2) Two-Face
3) The Riddler
4) Mr. Zsasz
5) The Penguin

Here's the problem with this method. Batman is already a signal. Everything he does, from the batsignal to the bat-tracking devices, is meant to deter criminals. He uses fear to thwart them. After all, this is the importance of dressing up like a bat. Otherwise, he would just be some goofball with a fetish.

reprinted from reelmovienews.com

Yet, this signaling unfortunately had the opposite effect of what Batman had originally intended. He may stand as a symbol of fear and deterrence for ordinary street thugs (which is incidentally what he started out fighting), but his actions have produced an unintended consequence of breeding more insane villains and "freaks." Indeed, this has been explored in numerous books including The Dark Knight Returns, The Killing Joke, Batman: Ego, and others.

The idea is that many of these villains have motivations other than the immediate reward of the crime. They like having Batman chase them. They try time and time again to outsmart him. For many of these villains, it has become a game to try and thwart the Batman. His very presence in the city, rather than deterring them, has actually and somewhat counter-intuitively inspired them to commit more clever crimes. And without that game, these villains tend to revert back into catatonia. In one story called "Going Sane," The Joker, after thinking he had killed Batman, actually ends up retiring from crime, changing his name to "Joe Kerr," getting reconstructive plastic surgery, and moves into suburbia to live a quiet and peaceful life. Once he finds out Batman hadn't been killed, he mutilates himself and gears up into action once again.

Given these motivations, it is unlikely that Kleiman's strategy would work against the Batman villains should he order his list as he did above. If Batman publicizes pursuing the Joker above all else, he would not be deterred in the slightest. In fact, I'd bet that other villains, in an attempt to grab Batman's attention, would start committing more crimes.

However, this does not necessarily mean the signaling strategy is hopeless. It might be able to achieve some benefits for Batman if used appropriately. For instance, although many villains see Batman's presence as motivation, there are still supervillains who unequivocally want him gone. Consider our list above. The Penguin and Mr. Zsasz two such villains.

Let's look at The Penguin. During Batman's peak, The Penguin operated primarily from behind the scenes. Rather than being out on the street, he owned and operated a "legitimate" business--a restaurant/night club. Sure the club was a hot spot for villains and sure he laundered lots of money through the business, but The Penguin did not want to be caught. That's why he was Batman's primary source of information regarding the other villains. Yet, when Batman went missing after the events of Batman R.I.P., guess who formed a major crime gang and tried to take control of all of Gotham City? That's right, the Penguin is now one of the major problems that Dick Grayson and the crew have to deal with.

So what would happen if Batman decided to order his list another way? Instead of having the most dangerous villains first, suppose he decided to put The Penguin and Mr. Zsasz as top priorities. Then, those two would probably stop committing as many crimes. With them out of the way, as the argument goes, Batman would now be able to focus his attention on The Joker, Two-Face and the Riddler without expending anything on additional resources or sidekicks. It's a cost-effective way of getting rid of the guys on the sidelines--those that really want Batman dead--and focusing on the truly insane ones. The problem, of course, is unlike the gangs mentioned in the NYTimes example, that these latter villains will not be deterred. However, even a small amount of sideline villains out of the way is a bonus.

The other major problem is that, as mentioned above, we don't know how these latter villains will react. It is entirely possible that the signaling efforts of Batman and Gordon will cause them to commit more crimes that are more clever or dangerous in an attempt to win Batman's attention. It is also possible that with Batman's attention elsewhere, they will simply get bored (until such time that the Penguin and Mr. Zsasz are completely out of commission). We don't really have a great way of knowing.

Given Batman's circumstances, I can't think of a great scientific means of fighting crime effectively. He's a bit trapped--if he continues his war on crime, villains like The Joker are born and remain in play. If he retires, then the city becomes weak and vulnerable to villains that, despite not being The Joker, are just strong enough to resist capture by standard law enforcement.

Can anyone devise a way that Batman should/could be fighting/reducing crime effectively?

89 comments:

John Wilson said...

Can anyone devise a way that Batman should/could be fighting crime effectively?

the only one i know of that work(ed) was in kingdom come, where bruce use a patrol of robots to stop crime. in a numbers sense, he can go full force on a particular target without any fear of dead sidekicks, which is a incalculable setback. the challenge in that is that the gotham city of that AU is a police state, and batman believes in redemption, which don't go hand in hand.

jamused said...

Simple, Bruce Wayne can back a campaign to change the laws to allow the execution of insane recidivists. If the authorities can't guarantee to keep captured villains off the streets, the people will either vote to change the laws or form lynch mobs and take care of the problem themselves. The situation where the Joker escapes, kills a bunch of innocent people, gets caught and locked up and then escapes again ad nauseam isn't politically stable. Once the villains who are crazy enough to take the attention of Batman as a goal are all dead, the signaling strategy might work against the ordinary villains.

shadowgunman said...

Well besides death penalty, I imagine that building facilities that are capable of holding super villians in Gotham, or deportaion to a Guantanmo like facility would be good ideas. I always thought that it was funny that some of these people commit 9/11 once or more times a year yet the policy response has been much more muted in the comic universe (well the DC universe that is).

Greg Sanders said...

Team-ups may be the way to go. Wonderwoman, Superman, and Batman could divvy up the handling of the crazies that desire to be pursued. Presumably, the Joker wouldn't find being chased by Wonderwoman or Superman as satisfying.

This actually comes up in the Batman Beyond movie (spoiler warning). In the final confrontation, Terry modifies his tactics to make the battle less satisfying for the villain in question.

irilyth said...

The only way to win is not to play: If supervillains step up their villainy because they like the game of fighting against Batman, the most effective thing Batman can do is end the game by taking out the villains permanently. This might even deter new villains from rising up: Instead of a delightful career thinking of new ways to try to trick and torment Batman, all you have to look forward to is a quick and uninteresting death when Batman catches you and executes you.

Alex said...

You and others have hit this already, but the motivations of, say, drug dealers differs from that of the Joker and the Riddler. I think in the case of Gotham the assumption is that other "common" crimes are drastically lower as a result of Batman's presence (hence the widespread crime during RIP). So the theory in the DC universe does work, it just doesn't apply when the main motivation of a supervillain is to cause misery to the hero. The options then are to either not have Batman anymore (which causes additional problems), or to incapacitate them (which a collaboration with Jason Todd would solve).

Doesn't making a focus list also assume that the hero can reduce the crimes committed by one person, so that they can eventually shift to other groups? If you're talking about the Joker, who would theoretically never stop his crimes even if Batman kept going after him, then Batman would be consistently tracking him. Unless he was to get more help, wouldn't it then result in the other villains committing more crimes since there's obviously less focus on them, as the Joker threat would never be quelled unless he were killed/incapacitated?

Also, what if the villains realize collectively that the cops can go only after one group at a time?

Brian Moore said...

"Simple, Bruce Wayne can back a campaign to change the laws to allow the execution of insane recidivists. "

Or, alternatively, "accidentally" kill them in the process of apprehending them. If the Joker disappears one day and never comes back, no one is going to complain, or look in the shallow grave dug out behind Wayne Manor.

Klaus said...

One possible solution: Increase supervillain awareness among criminals.

Joker, Two-face, Mr. Zsasz and other supervillains tend to leave a trail of bodies (civilian and criminal alike) where ever they go. They skin alive people that step on their tuff and shoot dead even their most trusted accountants for fun. Eventually, supervillains would become a bigger reason not to commit crime than Batman himself.

Equate criminal activity to suicide. You'll see a fast drop in lower level crimes.

Bonus side effect: supervillains would have a harder time attracting henchmen, lowing the rate at which they could commit large-scale crimes.

ShadowBanker said...

John - Robots seem like they'd be good against ordinary street thugs, but against The Joker?

Jamused - Ha, but Bruce would never do that! As utilitarian as it might be, we know that this would be betray Batman's core principles

Shadowgunman - That's a really interesting point. Actually, it is pretty funny to think about how sensitized the DC Universe has become so sensitized to these catastrophes. Investment in better holding facilities seems a good idea.

Greg - Would teams up breed more villain team ups?

irilyth - the problem is that there is a mixed bag of villains. some like it when Batman is around and others don't

Alex - That's exactly why I dont think the list would work if you put guys like The Joker at the top.

Brian - That's not Batman's MO!

Klaus - Interesting idea! What if Batman and Gordon were to somehow try to eliminate the supply of henchmen, without whom we know that even our biggest supervillains are significantly less useful. Someone had mentioned this earlier (I forget where/when) but do you think there's a henchmen union?

Klaus said...

At some point the rampant mistreatment of henchmen would have to take effect. Comics and cartoons alike occasionally poke fun at the endless henchmen supply chain. If we knew why this existed we might know how to stop it.

Example: Gotham in particular has a steady flow of able-bodied morally-flexible workers desperate enough for cash to work with the likes of Joker or Two-Face. This could be caused in part by a heavy illegal immigrant population (don't ask me where from). In this case deportation for lesser offenses and easier ways to land a working visa for honest work would cut henching back heavily. Putting more of the city budget into infrastructure projects might help create the extra jobs necessary to keep the immigrants employed.

Other possible reasons: drug culture, mass unemployment (the concern of the day), secret cloning facilities.

Also, love the blog.

darkerstar1 said...

I was thinking about this post and it occured that villians could (and sometime will) do the same. It isn't rare for villians to engage a superhero together and focus their fire together on a single hero. The various teams spend most of their time up against various other teams, while villans will face a hero with overwhelming odds (6:1 seems to be the most preferred). I believe you've covered what happens after these teams coalesce before, but I think the angle that villians are good at organizing themselves into formidable teams. I imagine that due to their strength in numbers villians are actually more up to this task than heros. All the more reason for Ironman and Superman to share thier tech with the anti-villian goverment forces.

Riddled with spelling errors I know, I'm in a rush.

Nevermore154 said...

This is a scenario of Gotham police without a ''Batman'' dealing with gangs.

I believe a good way of dealing with the gangs would be to have inside men (Note that this is plural) on each side telling the leaders that the cops are specifically coming to them ( Reason: For most dangerous ones = Because they're the most dangerous, Least dangerous ones = to get them out of the way, ones that are at a normal amount of danger = to be unexpected, etc.) While these gangs try to defend themselves by increasing defenses and therefore expending they're resources, the inside men could tell the police when the gang is weak at the moment ( the inside men would take away the defenses and such while the police raid the gang) and arrest the gang members, if the gangs instead of upgrading defenses are planning on trying to get more information on the cops' targets and such, you could always get the inside men to go on the missions and they would give false information. But there must be a way of insuring that word doesn't get out that it was an inside job, instead the police should give the press stories of them ''single-handedly taking down the gang'' and making sure communications in the building are off and no one leaves the sight who isn't escorted by a police officer.

I felt like doing a scenario without batman because, well, in the comics the only policemen tend to be the comish or a random policeman who is ill-suited for the job.

With Batman =

Batman kills everyone except the Riddler and Joker... because I highly doubt Batman is sane... and who really cares about the rest of them... ( Exception: Scarecrow and maybe another)

Voodoo said...

Batman won't kill or he wouldn't be the Batman. Other heroes have their own problems to deal with, sidekicks are a liability and no holding cell is going to help if, for instance, Bane decides to spring everyone.

I think Bruce Wayne should offer a massive reward for the capture of Batman. Street thugs will be motivated but they know they don't have a hope. Super villains will also be motivated but realise that the other super villains will also be equally motivated. (Even the ones not interested in the money will realise that they have act now to beat the others, after all they still want to be the one to take down Batman).

The first thing the villains will do is try to take out the competition, sending their gangs against each other. Very quickly the gang members will realise that working for a super villain is pretty suicidal and only getting them close to the day where they will have to face off against Batman.

Detached from their powerbase and fighting among themselves Batman should have a much easier time dealing with the remaining super villains.

ShadowBanker said...

Voodoo- It's an interesting theory, but somehow I doubt that monetary incentives will work for the supervillains. In fact, I think they're more likely to work on the thugs.

viagra online said...

there's a little problem to create some kind of superhero to reduce or delete all the crime, for each superhero created one supervillain is created too, look the most clear example the jack murder bruce wayne parents, batman almost kill jack, from this event born the joke, is a endless circle.

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I don't think that this will have any effect, It might solve some problems in short-term periods, but then things will go out of control, When we have all cops on red, there are 5 other gangs going wild, this is a bad idea.

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hm i think that The only way to win is not to play: If supervillains step up their villainy because they like the game of fighting against Batman, the most effective thing Batman can do is end the game by taking out the villains permanently. great job done...

linkwheel said...

Simple, Bruce Wayne can back a campaign to change the laws to allow the execution of insane recidivists. If the authorities can't guarantee to keep captured villains off the streets, the people will either vote to change the laws or form lynch mobs and take care of the problem themselves. The situation where the Joker escapes, kills a bunch of innocent people, gets caught and locked up and then escapes again ad nauseam isn't politically stable. Once the villains who are crazy enough to take the attention of Batman as a goal are all dead, the signaling strategy might work against the ordinary villains.

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It's really easy, bruce knows how to contact superman, and vice-versa, now what if say, supes and bat shift between cities for a while. Whereas the villains in metropolis use kryptonite as their first last and only resort, which wouldn't harm batman. The guys in gotham, as complex as their plans are, don't know kryptonite from a hole in the ground, when the crooks in metropolis get used to fighting batman, and the guys in gotham start stocking kryptonite,our heroes go home.

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