Friday, May 29, 2009

Alien Technology and Economic Growth: Lessons from Solow

(Guest Post from Metropolis)

From:  Tales to Astonish #62 by Lee and Ditko.  Reprinted from http://www.quickstopentertainment.com/comics101/17.html
Ever wonder why people in comics aren't teleporting to work, watching TV through a personal projection device while walking down the street, or attending seminars hosted by an android via group-telepathy?

Instead, the worlds in our favorite comics still have potholes, poverty, and petroleum-powered cars. In fact, aside from the occasional reality-bending crisis involving metahumans, it’s hard to distinguish our world from theirs in terms of technological progress or standards of living. This begs the question of what happens to all the alien wreckage after the Justice League fends off another alien invasion, or to the abandoned spaceships when interplanetary thugs with a grudge against Superman land on Earth. Do men in black immediately cart them off to secret government facilities and weaponize them? If so, then these governments are doing a great disservice to their people. The fastest way to achieve economic growth is through the free and unfettered dissemination of knowledge. Governments should encourage the private sector to develop commercial uses for all the space junk that winds up on earth, thereby simultaneously increasing both the capital stock and total factor productivity.

Aside from physical capital, economies must take advantage of their human capital to grow. But even with metahumans this is a tricky proposition. In an earlier post Mark discussed the potential benefits of having mutants performing tasks such as construction if they ever took a break from blowing stuff up. However, looking at economic development through the lens of the Solow model I feel that these mutants may ultimately prove unable to increase long-run living standards. Any effect that Magneto may have on productivity will only temporarily move the economy to a higher steady-state output per person (y/n). With his death the economy will move back to where it was (and probably experience some unpleasant distortions during the transition). The reason is that Magneto is essentially no different than a tractor or any other piece of capital equipment. He ages, depreciates and eventually dies. More importantly however, is the basic result of the Solow model: sustained growth in y/n can only be achieved if there is concurrent growth in our stock of knowledge and technology, something Magneto cannot contribute to. Without technological change, the economy will eventually reach a steady-state level of y/n and all growth will cease. Even so, the Marvel universe does have one ace in the hole, and he’s got a big green head!

Samuel Sterns was just an average Joe working at a chemical plant when he was exposed to massive amounts of gamma radiation. Thus was born The Leader, a villain whose only real power is superhuman intellect (maybe some telekinesis, but whatever). This guy probably has enough ideas in his head to keep scientists busy for millennia. Imagine the technological advancements that could be made if the government hooked him up with a research position! And if there’s one Leader, then it’s possible to have more metahumans with precariously large crania. Given the right incentives, maybe some of these bums turned mutant geniuses will come up with life-enhancing inventions like 3D holographs or a flying car. There should be grants and subsidies to promote their research activities and encourage investment into new technologies, so guys with green skin and giant brains can yell at MIT grad students instead of toppling civilization with armies of plastic humanoids.

Finally, aside from investment from within our planet, economic growth can be sped along by Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows from other civilizations. But what’s surprising is that with an entire galaxy of highly advanced civilizations, no interplanetary investment seems to be reaching earth. Capital should flow to where its return is highest. Being mere humans in a giant multiverse of galactic powers, it’s a fair assumption that earth is an LDP (less developed planet) with a comparatively small capital stock. According to the Solow model, alien entrepreneurs should be jumping at the opportunity to invest in Earth. Add a growing stock of technology from metahumans and falling debris and you can get productivity and standards of living rising indefinitely. The only thing I can think of that deters aliens from investing is the unstable sociopolitical climate. I mean, who really wants to deal with the risks of a Luthor presidency or an Emperor Joker? It seems that now, more than ever, the earth needs superheroes to stamp out crime so that other planets might feel safer about their investments.

Even without additional capital inflows, all people on comic book earth have a real shot at modernizing if the proper steps are taken. And it’s not just the responsibility of the governments, but also of the superheroes. The Green Lanterns have access to technology and information from all the planets in the galaxy. Superman can travel through space and time almost instantaneously and in fact spends much of that time in the 31st century with the League of Superheroes. It’s about time some of this technology makes it back to Earth.

After all, maybe one of those alien spaceships had a toilet that could conserve water more efficiently, or something. It can’t all be hyperdrive this and giant laser cannon that!

151 comments:

MikeRussellMcK said...

I always kind of wondered this. I read casually, but have noticed that Reed Richards has gotten ridiculously smart over the years, so you have a leader-like brain w/o the super-villainy problem. Is he just too busy stopping Dr. Doom to make some newer, better iPhone or solar panel? See also Forge of X-Men fame. Quit wrenching on the Blackbird and make us a viable electric car.

This is one of the cooler things about Watchmen, Dr. Manhattan's presence changes the time-line so that there are electric cars and blimps and fancy gadgets he produced.

Maybe alien societies have a prime directive-type rule that prevents direct investment in earth? Or Uatu prevents interference? (except there is always interference)

hatBOX said...

It would mean a net inflow into earth(I say net, but seriously in the comic book world we normally dont have anything to offer), but what would they want in return? Invincible and the Viltrumites comes to mind - the super bastards.

Lewis Lovhaug said...

Question - couldn't the Magneto problem you brought up be solved by the fact that we've seen multiple Mutants who possess the same powers? I.E., we've seen at least two Mutants who have magnetic powers (Magneto and Polaris). Couldn't it be argued that while some may not necessarily be as powerful as Magneto is with such abilities, that some Mutant or Metahuman abilities could still be taken advantage of in a market? Super-strength alone has numerous uses both in humanitarian purposes as well as in the construction industry.

Anonymous said...

I think what the man from metropolis is getting at is that there are certainly short-term benefits to utilizing mutants in the economy. However, continued growth is unsustainable in the long run unless technology advances too. Its like teaching a man to fish instead of giving him a fish (maybe aquaman could help with that).

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Marcelo Rinesi said...

Although most individual mutants eventually age and die, the offspring of most mutants in the Marvel Universe also seems to carry the mutant gene, so the per capita productivity of Earth should grow provided the mutants/baselines population ratio does. Individuals are like tractors, but the mutant gene isn't.

Ben said...

Marcelo, the difference is that a tractor cannot choose whether or not it wants to be a tractor. It is created as capital and it stays as capital depreciating in value and until the time it is destroyed and replaced by another tractor. Just because Jean Grey chooses to help out by using her telekinesis to raise a barn doesn't mean Cable isn't going to want to be a painter.

Anonymous said...

Earth does interest alien entrepreneurs, but this interest manifests as conquest attempts, which are systematically fought off by superheroes.

The Skrulls have been trying to "invest" in Earth for decades.

Gerald Fnord said...

Good points about the children of mutants but:

1.) Hasn't Magneto been cloned, maybe _twice_? (Maybe we don't have access to that tech?)

2.) The question of a mutant's _wanting_ to use her powers constructively is addressable simply by removing any kind of safety-net for anyone, mere-hume or mutant. That's how our system can get the best from people, merely by implicitly threatening them with hunger, exposure, and disease. If things aren't bad enough, then some regressive tax to push people (and Things) to the wall faster would serve. (Even the worst non-classical [jazz?] liberal will see the need to cut off the humans as well, 'Lest Mutants Sham' as the old Jack Kirby two-pager announced).

Ben said...

Gerald,

See issues related to City of Genosha. The problem with threatening and subjugating people with super powers is that sometimes they do something about it.

MrDave2176 said...

the comic Top Ten shows a world where the impact of supers is keenly felt. Just FYI.

In the Marvel universe the Kree, the Skrull, the Eternals, and the Shi'ar have all invested in Earth by starting colonies. Some of these colonies (the Inhumans, Wundagore, the Savage Land) have thrived while others have been lost to time.

In the DC universe the Dominators invested a lot in trying to unlock the very "genetic anomaly" that makes Earth supers have the range of abilities they do. Presumably in order to propagate the same through their own race (but frankly IIRC it was to eliminate it).

ASKornheiser said...

As I recall, in The Dark Knight Returns, the superheroes have either been driven outside the society or coerced into it, and (for example) The Flash spends a big chunk of his time running around a hamster wheel generating power for the city.

Serious power--power great enough to actually make a major difference--must plausibly be contained or it will dominate. If the superheroes were not spending all their time fighting supervillains they would be taking over the world (cf. The Watchmen) or being controlled, probably unpleasantly, for society's good.

Power eventually is used; even if we can somehow have a majority of power users internally constrained, eventually it will come out.

We know there is no magic because we are not ruled by wizards; we know there is no ESP because we are not ruled by psychic mutants; and we know there are no superheroes because we are not living in the world of the Watchmen.

Ogrebear said...

Not just the Leader, what about The Thinker, Amadeus Cho, Walter Langokski, Owen Reece, Doc Oct, Madison Jeffries, Dr McCoy etc?

All these powerful brains really should be being utilized on the worlds problems instead of sitting around in jail or building crap for their teams.

The under utilization of resources in the Marvel U is amazing.

But I guess if they broke out the Big Brains and solved the worlds problems- well it would not be the 'world outside our window' any more. See also Aberrant rpg, Fantastic Four Big Town, and the aforementioned Watchman.

Then again Reed Richards did make a plan to 'solve everything' and it ended up with the Illuminanti, Civil War, and the so-called World War Hulk.

driftwood said...

I love your blog. Two questions:
1. Do you think that a lot of the issues you discuss are related to the limits of the storytelling? i.e.- it's hard to write characters that "realistically" alter the regular universe they inhabit as opposed to using a new universe as the starting point. Personally, I think Powers by Oeming and Bendis did a good job of how showing how superheroes affect the everyday lives of the rest of us.
2. Just an idea, but it may be interesting to discuss chronic poverty and governance in Eric Powell's The Goon, another fantastic series.

-Brad Soule

Matt said...

http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/ReedRichardsIsUseless

Another David said...

So once again, the Solow model falls apart because it fails to take into account the RISK associated with high return. If you were an alien, would you put your money on us: a world that is a drop of a hat away from blowing itself up? If you answered yes, then ask yourself this: why isn't every cent of your money invested in Uganda, Tajikistan, or some other unstable third world country?

Allen Smithee said...

I have a question:
How does an alien invest 'capital' into the Earth economy? I foresee the following issues with investing:

1)It can't wire transfer 'money' (since inter-planetary/galactic money would be as good as monopoly money).

2) The alien would need to have a precious earth metal, which might not be abundant in its home planet / system.

3) For inter-planetary 'money' (cash / electronic) to be invested in Earth, we would need to be a part of an inter planetary/galactic monetary federation (so what would we follow, a gold-based / similar system? If not, which planet would host the reserve currency?).

Similar argument for a stock / security exchange.

The only way I can think of enabling alien investment is through granting them economic rights for technology exchange (and then again, all the above problems need to be sorted out).

Scott said...

@Smithee:

Given that a galactic economy is surely going to be far larger than that of Earth, I think that you're approaching the problem all wrong.

Handing us galactic credits or whatever makes no sense without also allowing us access to the galactic markets, those credits will be *better* than gold (especially if some alien race has transmutation technology). After all, those who accepted credits as payment for Earth goods would be able to purchase things completely unavailable on Earth.

On the other hand, if the aliens don't wish to allow us unfettered access to their markets, they can always go the beads and mirrors route, bartering specific alien hardware (or formulae or manufacturing instructions if they're being nice) for untold sums of Earth cash, then turning around and buying up real estate, stocks, whatever.

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Aria Kerry said...

I think what the man from metropolis is getting at is that there are certainly short-term benefits to utilizing mutants in the economy.

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Unknown said...

For one, Magneto is a genius in electronics and biology. We (and he) could study his powers and find ways to replicate it or, if not that, at least discover more about the workings of electromagnetism by working with him. Thus, mutants supply a permanent boon in the form of experimental and control testing. They also allow construction of super-durable capital goods that would not have been possible without them. Several of them are virtually immortal, and their progeny are often super-powered themselves.

As for the distortions in the economy Magneto would cause, that would just free up tons of labor to do other things. So if the day finally came when he died, we would at least have more of something else plus the more efficient Magneto projects. Unless he died very suddenly, we could probably make arrangements to transition into newer mutants or have Magneto help modify the equipment so we can continue producing his services (or an approximation) afterwards.

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Although most individual mutants eventually age and die, the offspring of most mutants in the Marvel Universe also seems to carry the mutant gene, so the per capita productivity of Earth should grow provided the mutants/baselines population ratio does. Individuals are like tractors, but the mutant gene isn't.

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